Predicting the future – context to lead and disrupt markets
Post-GFC, consumer mindsets are crystalising into new purchasing mentalities, changed behaviours and transformed beliefs and values. We have seen consumers behaving in strange ways through the recent turmoil, with share of wallet holding up in unexpected places and confidence plummeting in forecast strongholds.
For brands to react to the these changes and their impact on market places, they need to be able to anticipate the future. To prosper, they need to be able to lead and disrupt markets rather than simply react to them. Information with context is critical; to lead and disrupt markets we need to discriminate between trends and fads.
In my research over the past ten years, I’ve developed a theory of social evolution. In studying behaviours within society going back 500 years, it becomes evident that consumer behaviour is cyclical and predictable. Within each cycle are trends. Each of these trends is characterised by consumers seeking their ideal society – they do this through their every behaviour.
Here is a snapshot of Australian society as it is today and a forecast for society in 10 – 20 years time…
In 2010…
- The Australian spirit is soaring in response to recent turbulence – We have matured as a nation and our response to recent events has proven our confidence and strength.
- ‘Australian owned and operated’ has meaning now – For the past few years ‘Australian’ has begun to stand for quality, when comparing products to goods manufactured overseas. Since the GFC, ‘Australian’ has begun to stand for ‘Australian jobs’ and ‘Australian economic recovery’.
- We are questioning the equity of capitalism – Greed and materialism are to blame for the crisis and status symbols are losing their importance as a result. The recession has granted permission for Australians to tighten their purse strings, enabling us to realise the long-term trend for simplicity – ‘back to basics’ and ‘stop the pretence’.
- Our priorities have shifted towards family and friends – As materialism loses importance, a pull back in spending and priority shift towards friends and family has unfolded. Quality of relationships has become a key success indicator of life.
- Gen Y remain a rule unto themselves – The GFC did not impact on them personally; they view the situation as exaggerated by media hype and a problem others faced due to their debt levels. They continue to purchase big ticket items and houses capitalising on eroded prices.
- There is still caution – Historically Australia tends to not truly feel global economic crisis for two years or more after the initial crash. There is a cautiousness around whether we have really ‘dodged the bullet’ or if we are yet to feel the effects. This is leading to a holding back in both business and consumer spending.
- The reprioritising of life is continuing – Even though work hours and demands are rising, there is a desire to continue on with the personal re-organising of life that was started last year – focus on relationships, personal health, quality time outside of work, home improvements, etc.
- Where purse strings are being loosened, it is in a simpler and more satisfying way – The pull back on consumer spending appears to have made recent purchases more meaningful. Maintaining this feeling and satisfaction seems critical.
What the future holds…
Following the turmoil we are moving into a period of stabilisation, which is characterised by themes of traditionalism, nationalism, uniformity, simplicity and spirituality. Over the next decade and beyond we will see the following trends emerge and strengthen.
- Strengthening of gender stereotypes – We will continue to see the return to traditional gender roles. Women are starting to and will increasingly seek fulfillment in the role of mother and wife – we are currently seeing two generations of women having children. While education and career will still be important, this is certainly a secondary priority. Counteracted with continued increases in cost of living, women will be forced to stay in the workplace. Their challenge will be to fulfill their family role as a priority, yet still make a contribution to the family unit costs. This has significant implications for employers.
- Homogenisation of Australian culture – The degree of nationalism will continue to grow, especially as immigration increases. The desire to ‘maintain’ Australia’s national identity is very strong, particularly amongst younger Australians. This will manifest in a push for stabilisation through conformity – pressure to fit in with the Australian culture, rather than the more traditional celebration of diversity.
- Ageing and population – The aging population has been an intangible crisis for the future. Now, however, we are starting to see and feel its effects, and this will only escalate over the coming decade. As the need for immigration to address our ageing population increases, people will becoming begrudgingly more accepting of opening our borders to new entrants – but still in line with maintaining our Australian national identity. This will inevitably cause tensions within our cities and centres.
- Long boom economy – Once the global economy has stabilised in the US and UK we will slowly move back into a state of boom. This boom will be driven out of the more traditional rural, raw materials and infrastructure development areas of the economy. It will be a long, slow, stable growth over a 30-year period.
- Revitalisation of country Australia – This rural boom, coupled with increased immigration, will see our rural centres experiencing a second coming, as livestock, wool, crops, and raw materials lead the slow economic recovery.
- Spirituality to stabilise – More will continue our return to investment in our spiritual wellbeing, continuing a shift to seeking meaning in life through spirituality. This will manifest in a return to traditional institutions such as churches and religion, but will also include a wider embracement of Eastern philosophies and holistic spiritual perspectives.
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